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Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Foreign trade is expected to return to 2008 levels next year
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently released its 2010 Economic Blue Book, offering insights into China's economic outlook for the coming year. According to the report, if global conditions improve and domestic policies remain supportive, China's import and export trade is expected to grow by 10% in 2011, with exports rising by as much as 15%, bringing them closer to pre-2008 levels. This projection highlights a cautiously optimistic view of China's external trade performance.
In addition, the Blue Book forecasts that China’s GDP growth will reach 8.3% this year. If the global financial crisis does not worsen significantly next year, and if there are no major natural disasters or other disruptions, the country's GDP growth could stabilize around 9% in 2011. These figures reflect the government's confidence in maintaining economic stability despite ongoing global uncertainties.
Despite a ten-month decline in foreign trade from November last year to August this year, international prices for oil and mineral resources have remained low. Both commodities are highly dependent on foreign sources, making them key factors in China's economic strategy. Yan Changhong, director of the Institute of Finance and Trade at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, emphasized that initiating mechanisms to convert foreign exchange and physical reserves could allow for large-scale imports of these resources. This would not only support China's future economic development but also boost global demand, contributing to the recovery of the world economy. It could also serve as a countermeasure against rising trade protectionism.
Data shows that China's reliance on imported oil has grown significantly over the years, increasing from 1.9% in 1994 to 45% in 2006. Experts predict that this dependence will continue to rise over the next 20 to 30 years, reaching between 50% and 60%. This growing dependency underscores the importance of securing stable energy supplies.
Regarding the real estate market, which has drawn widespread attention, the "Economic Blue Book" acknowledges that major reforms to the property sector and its fiscal system are unlikely to happen soon. It states that China's real estate industry is at a critical juncture, and what happens in the coming year will largely depend on the interests and decisions of various stakeholders.
Liang Shuang, an associate researcher at the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's Policy Research Center, suggests that the success of any reform will depend largely on the government's commitment and the scale of coordinated efforts across departments.
To address these challenges, Zhou Tianyong, a professor at the Central Party School, proposed several measures in the Blue Book. He recommended reforming the land bidding and auction system to create a more competitive land supply market. This includes limiting the scope of non-public land expropriation and allowing collective land to directly enter the construction market if it aligns with urban planning. Additionally, he suggested streamlining land transactions by registering land information on exchanges and enabling flexible trading. On the housing front, he advocated for expanding government-provided housing support, not only for low-income groups but also for middle-income residents. Under this model, housing would be offered as rental options rather than property rights, ensuring affordability and accessibility while maintaining a market-oriented approach.
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