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Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Foreign trade is expected to return to 2008 levels next year
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently released the 2010 Economics Blue Book, offering key economic forecasts for the coming year. According to the report, if global conditions improve and domestic policies remain supportive, China's total import and export trade is expected to grow by 10% in 2011, with exports rising by as much as 15%. This growth could bring trade levels close to those seen in 2008, signaling a strong recovery.
The Blue Book also forecasts that China’s GDP growth will reach 8.3% this year. If the global financial crisis does not worsen significantly next year, and no major natural disasters or other crises occur, the country's GDP growth is expected to stabilize around 9% in 2011. This projection reflects confidence in China's resilience and policy effectiveness.
Despite a ten-month decline in foreign trade from November last year to August this year, international prices for oil and mineral resources remain low. These commodities are highly dependent on external sources for China. Yan Changhong, director of the Institute of Finance and Trade at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, emphasized that if mechanisms for converting foreign exchange reserves into physical assets are activated, large-scale imports of these resources could benefit China’s long-term economic development while boosting global demand and supporting world economic recovery. This strategy could also serve as a countermeasure against trade protectionism.
Data shows that China’s reliance on imported oil has risen sharply over the years, increasing from 1.9% in 1994 to 45% in 2006. It is projected that in the next 20 to 30 years, this dependence will rise further, reaching between 50% and 60%.
Regarding the real estate market, which has drawn widespread attention, the "Economics Blue Book" acknowledges that reforms in real estate and its fiscal system have yet to take place. It states that China's real estate sector is at a critical juncture, and future developments will largely depend on the interests and decisions of various stakeholders.
Liang Shuang, an associate researcher at the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's Policy Research Center, believes that the success of reform depends mainly on the determination and scale of coordinated efforts among government departments.
To address these challenges, Zhou Tianyong, a professor at the Central Party School, proposed in the Blue Book that relevant authorities should reform the land bidding and auction system to create a more competitive land supply market. This includes narrowing the scope of non-public land expropriation, allowing collective land to directly enter the construction market if it meets urban planning requirements. Additionally, he suggested improving the land transfer process by registering information on exchanges and enabling flexible transactions. On the housing front, he advocated for expanding the government's role in providing affordable housing, shifting both low- and middle-income housing out of the market and into a government-supported system. Under this model, housing would be available at different price points, ensuring accessibility without granting property rights.
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