Men's clothing industry boom is expected to continue to improve

Men's clothing industry boom is expected to continue to improve

According to the report on China's apparel industry climate index, in the third quarter of 2011, the economic index of the China-Oceno-Clothing industry was 99.7 points, a slight increase of 0.1 points from the previous quarter; the warning index of the China-based apparel industry was 103.3 points, a decrease of 16.7 points from the previous quarter. The rise in apparel manufacturing industry in the third quarter is mainly driven by the positive effects of stable export tax rebates, the reduction of certain import tariffs on textile materials, and the implementation of favorable policies on the extension of new national standards for textiles.

Specifically, according to customs statistics, according to customs statistics, from January to September 2011, China’s textile and apparel exports totaled US$186.139 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and the growth rate was down 1.4% from 25.72% in January-August. Among them, textile exports totaled 70.904 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, the growth rate fell by 1.3 percentage points from January to August, and exports of apparel and accessories reached 115.235 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 23.3% year-on-year. The growth rate fell 1.6 percentage points from January to August. .

The sluggish peripheral demand has made the textile industry's orders still not optimistic, coupled with the ** predicament of many small and medium-sized textile companies, making the textile industry decline in the second half of the year.

In terms of domestic demand, from January to August 2011, the retail sales of textile clothing above designated size in China was 480.4 billion yuan, an increase of 24% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage point lower than that in January to July. Among them, August's single month fell more obviously. In August, the monthly growth rate was 21.9% compared to the previous month, and the growth rate fell by 2.2 percentage points from July. July and August are the traditional low season of clothing. It is expected that the garment sales will be good in September. On the one hand, it will be earlier this year. On the other hand, the supply chain system of garment enterprises has been continuously improved in recent years, and the supply has accelerated to make the autumn market earlier this year. In September, the apparel CPI reached 3.2%, and hit a new high this year. It is expected that the clothing price will remain at a high level from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year.

Looking into the fourth quarter and next year, we continue to favor the men's wear industry. The growth rate of the men'swear industry at the spring/summer 2012 2012 spring/summer fair was generally above 30%. The growth rate will be relatively high next year. From this we continue to favor the men'swear industry with strong price hikes and stable customers. You can sort out three orders for the menswear industry: the growth rate of the spring-summer 2011 trade fair held in September 2010 will be around 20%; the 2011/07 winter-autumn order meeting will grow at around 20% to 25% in 2011; In August 2012, the growth rate of the spring-summer trade fair will be around 30%. At present, the men's apparel industry has a lighter channel inventory, and franchisees have higher enthusiasm for getting goods.

With the arrival of October, the men’s listed companies will usher in the announcement of the third quarterly report. It is estimated that the 3rd quarterly profit growth rate of Announcement in 2011 will be about 55%. It is estimated that the profit growth rate of the seven wolf quarterly reports will be approximately 45%. It is estimated that the profit growth rate of the Jiumuwang Third Quarterly Report will be approximately 40%. It is expected that the growth rate of the third quarterly profit of the Chinooks will be approximately 35%. Overall, it is expected that the performance of listed companies in the menswear industry will continue to perform well in the third quarter, and the growth momentum can be extended.

After the menswear industry went through inventory destocking from 2009 to 2010, the current inventory within the channel is relatively light. With the continuous improvement in design, fabrics, services, shop display and supply chain management, the original advantages of the men's leading brand enterprises It has been continuously consolidated. In addition, the company continues to enter new market segments and continues to inject new vitality into the brand.

From the valuation point of view, the current valuation of men's wear corresponds to about 25 times in 2011, and is equivalent to the valuation of Hong Kong stocks menswear companies, there is basically no risk of valuation downside. Therefore, as a whole, we continue to favor the future market space of high-end men's wear with strong price increase ability, high unit price, and less sensitive to the price of customers, especially the medium-to-high-end business men's wear. Relatively cautious are the export companies concerned.

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