Foreign trade recovery still has pressure policy "exit" is too early

The upcoming Canton Fair reproduces the "one hard to find" scene. Along with the recovery of China's foreign trade, the voice of a package of stable external demand policies should be “exited”, and the RMB exchange rate is also facing tremendous pressure for appreciation.

However, China's foreign trade is still in a period of recovery and growth. The future development is also uncertain. Industry insiders suggest that foreign trade policies, including exchange rate policies, should be stable in order to consolidate the rebound of exports and prevent a double dip. ".

Foreign demand has not rebounded significantly Since last year, China has introduced a policy of responding to the crisis and stabilizing external demand, including maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate and continuously raising the export tax rebate rate. The effect is remarkable.

With the recovery of foreign trade exports, whether a series of policies to stabilize external demand should be withdrawn, and when to withdraw has become the focus of public opinion at home and abroad. In particular, the recent remarks that the US has been the first to pressure the appreciation of the renminbi have caused the above debate to heat up sharply.

However, the reporter learned from the Import and Export Chamber of Commerce of Machinery, Textiles and Light Industry that the recent strong rebound in exports, except for the lower base factor in the same period last year, was mainly driven by short-term factors, and there was no obvious rebound in external demand. Specifically, first, the importer's inventory is basically digested, and the demand for replenishing stocks is obvious. Second, the situation is that the renminbi appreciation is rushing to export. Third, the unit price of some export products has rebounded.

“Although the export data has improved, the order status of enterprises has increased. However, from the order structure, short-term orders within 60 days are the mainstay, accounting for more than 80%, while the long-term order share is limited.” President of China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products Zhang Yujing said.

Li Jian, a researcher at the Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that from an international perspective, the Dubai crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, the uncertainty of the world economic recovery, and the proliferation of trade protectionism, the future development of China's foreign trade is uncertain.

In addition, the domestic situation has also worried export companies. "At present, labor costs are rising rapidly, raw material prices are rising, industry transfer and opening up the domestic market are difficult, and companies are facing multiple pressures," said Li Wenfeng, vice president of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Light Industrial Products.

"Overall, it is difficult for the growth rate of import and export to rise rapidly. Under the background of the contradiction between old and new, it is necessary to promote the steady development of foreign trade and seek transformation in stability." Liang Yaowen, director of the Guangdong Provincial Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Department said.

Stable policies can be stabilized. Some experts and industry insiders believe that at this stage, to stabilize the development of foreign trade, we must first maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate. "In the early stage of export recovery, if the RMB exchange rate changes, it will have a serious impact on the company's just-expanded profits." Zhang Yujing said frankly.

According to the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, if the renminbi appreciates by 3% in the short term, the profits of manufacturers such as home appliances, automobiles and mobile phones will fall by 30% to 50%, and many SMEs with low bargaining power will face losses.

According to the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles, the average net profit margin of China's textile and apparel enterprises is between 3% and 5%. If the RMB appreciates by 1%, corporate profits will also decrease by 1%. The loss caused by interest rates is a rigid loss that cannot be digested by negotiating with customers and improving supply chain management.

Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the Development and Reform Commission, said that the appreciation of the renminbi can indeed promote the restructuring and transfer of enterprises. However, the “backward mechanism” has the bottom line. When exporting enterprises face rising labor costs, rising raw materials prices and low external demand. When a series of shocks are encountered, they may be unable to withstand and fall into desperation.

A large number of small and medium-sized export enterprises are precisely the more important carriers for China to absorb labor.
Li Wenfeng suggested that this year, we should not easily change the RMB exchange rate policy, especially in the near term, the RMB exchange rate should be basically stable. If the export situation improves in the second half of the year, the US dollar continues to weaken, and the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi is further increased. It is also necessary to adhere to the principle of a small slow appreciation. This will help enterprises gradually transfer part of the appreciation cost in the negotiations.

In addition, the financial sector should accelerate the development of financial hedging instruments and appropriately reduce the cost of exchange rate hedging products. Second, we must maintain the continuity of a series of foreign trade policies such as export tax rebates and export credit insurance.

"The export tax rebate policy plays a significant role in ensuring corporate profits and should be maintained. In addition, it should continue to reduce the cost of enterprises participating in export credit insurance." Liang Yaowen said.

Steady change and transformation. However, the experts and industry insiders also said that stabilizing the existing foreign trade policy does not mean that the current foreign trade growth mode does not need to be changed. With the rising cost of land, labor and raw materials, China's open economy is facing tremendous adjustment pressure in the future.

According to Li Wenfeng, at present, the labor costs of neighboring countries such as India and Vietnam are already lower than those of China. The cost of water, electricity and land is equivalent to that of China. Some foreign-funded enterprises have begun to transfer some production capacity to Southeast Asia and India.

"On the one hand, we must avoid changing the foreign trade policy too fast, and bring difficulties to the business. On the other hand, we must avoid the pressure of upgrading and transformation because the environment is too loose. Before returning to the crisis, we should only pay attention to external needs such as the European and American markets. Going on the old road. It should send a clear signal to the company," said Li Jian, a researcher at the Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce. "The next policy focus should be on supporting enterprises to increase their independent innovation, increase the added value of products, and improve the quality and efficiency of exports." Zhang Yansheng said.

Huo Jianguo, president of the Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, suggested that China’s foreign trade policy should be strengthened on the basis of stability and can be targeted and flexible. It can promote the adjustment and upgrading of trade structure through the implementation of differentiated policies. At the same time, we must explore new markets based on the potential of the traditional market.

Li Wenfeng suggested that the state should increase policy and financial support for independent innovation, technology research and development, energy conservation and emission reduction, acquisition of foreign brands and marketing networks, mergers and acquisitions, and development of emerging markets, and establish a number of important R&D and design centers. And brand exhibitions; issued a substantial supporting policy to support enterprises to "go global" and transfer to the central and western regions; support enterprises to explore the domestic market, gradually solve related problems in the field of domestic circulation, and establish a smooth market mechanism in the field of domestic and foreign trade circulation. Some of the light industrial products going to the countryside policy should be piloted. Support the holding of domestic trade fairs for foreign trade light industrial products.