Cotton: Dare to ask where the road is

It is most appropriate to describe the trend of cotton in the past two years as “bright 2010 and low 2011”. After experiencing the year of the "Great Leap Forward" last year, the cotton has experienced an ups and downs this year. Where is the return of cotton after a cycle?

When the price of cotton went down, when cotton hit the road of falling prices, it seemed that it had reached a dead end. Now under the support of the state's policy of receiving deposits and reserves, it has entered a period of relative resilience, and the overall trend is in a weak and volatile situation. Price line 19800 yuan / ton small fluctuations.

Now the overall performance of the cotton spot market is relatively stable. The price of seed cotton experienced a downturn in the previous period. Currently, it maintains a stable state. Some cotton farmers began to accept the current seed cotton purchase price, and the enthusiasm for the sale of cotton was slightly higher than that of the previous period. The Aksu Bachu District 3 seed cotton is offered at 8.6-8.7 yuan/kg (40 cents), and the 4th grade is quoted at 7-8 yuan/kg. In terms of lint, the price of the current four-level package is about 18,400 yuan/ton, and the value of imported old cotton is 18,300 yuan/ton.

Weak demand is the root cause Since October, the spread of cotton and cotton tends to a historical average, but this does not bring about a better demand for lint. The problems faced by cotton and chemical fiber are the same. No matter fabric, cotton yarn or polyester, the situation of production and sales is not optimistic. The operating rate of polyester manufacturers and spinning mills is very low. The phenomenon of cuts in production and production is increasingly common, and the demand for chemical fiber and lint is obviously weak. .

The current weak domestic demand for cotton is the root cause of weakening cotton prices. The main reason for the sluggish demand is that the economy of Europe and the United States is in a downturn and the demand for terminals has been drastically reduced. There is also a shift in China's cotton textile export orders. Finally, under the influence of the current national macroeconomic policy tightening, the capital chain of various small and medium-sized enterprises is very tight, and the limiting factors are relatively large.

In the yarn market, the price of yarn frequently falls, and the price of the yarn market is relatively frequent. The production and sales are still not prosperous. Now Shengze pure cotton yarn 32s reported 26,100 yuan / ton, due to the fall in demand, the operating rate will also decline, the general phenomenon of reduced production. Qian Qingchun Polyester discussed flat atmosphere, lack of terminal orders, sluggish trading, and now 32S woven pure polyester yarn mainstream offer in 14800-15000 yuan / ton. Xiao Shaoren cotton woven 30S was sold at 19,000 yuan, and the quality was slightly better at 19,500 yuan.

At present, most mills are in deep losses, low-priced are reluctant to sell, some are working capital, and low-priced sells. Therefore, there is still room for falling prices in the later yarn market, and the bottom has not yet formed.

Textile demand is "very cold"

It is reported that from January to September, the United States imported 14935.92 SMEs of cotton products from the world, a decrease of 11.18% year-on-year. This shows that the consumption of cotton textiles in the United States is drastically reduced, and the days of the textile giants are not good enough. Under the influence of factors such as rising labor costs, textile industry policies and exchange rates, the competitive advantages of traditional textile giants in the international cotton textile market are rapidly losing.

The road to cotton futures is expected to be the current European debt crisis surging, the global economic outlook is not good, demand is the most fundamental factor restricting the trend of cotton. Although the state's purchasing and storage policies can provide some support for cotton prices, it is not a permanent solution. The recovery of demand is the strength of the cotton market to restore confidence, and it is also the only way for the market to recover.